In practice, though, things often go quite differently. Should the company temporarily swoon, you will get a call from your broker advising you that the loan is now due and you need to either come up with more cash or he will sell out your shares, at a loss, and cover the margin. Now a particularly optimistic type will find more cash, buy more shares, and set himself up for an even bigger fall. Many optimists have lost their life savings from a series of these episodes. Lawsuits inevitably follow.

In particularly bad markets, you are more likely get a call stating that the matter has already been taken care of and you now own only 50 shares of this company, but you no longer owe the broker a dime. This may be fortunate as it avoids the opportunity for you to put up more of your cash. However, should the company immediately recover and soar, lawyers will argue for you in court that you were not given proper notice and an opportunity to cover the deficit, which you certainly would have done.

Wall Street has always known that buyers are primarily interested in stocks that increase in value. Profiting from declines is un-American. The easiest sell is a stock or fund that has already gone up. You will naturally be more confident that a stock or fund that has gone up will continue to do so. A broker will show you a select list of stocks that have strong momentum. Your overconfidence will hurt you. Studies show that stocks that have good streaks soon revert to the mean. While your broker is sure to know this, he will not disclose it to an optimistic buyer. He also has other sales tools.

Conventional small business loans are also made to “qualifying borrowers,” whereas the eligibility requirement of SBA loans is for borrowers that cannot obtain this financing. Therefore, the quality of conventional small business loans is generally better than SBA loans.

The average loan balance for conventional business loans for the most part will be higher than the SBA due to a lack of SBA limits on loan size. Also recall that SBA loans are typically floaters indexed to the prime rate. Conventional loans tend to be indexed to three-month LIBOR because the investment community prefers LIBOR floating rate bonds. Indexing the underlying collateral to the same index mitigates basis risk. SBA transactions have basis risk; however, the rating agencies take this into consideration when specifying levels of credit enhancement for deals.

Large portions of conventional loans are secured by first liens on real commercial property. Transactions will often consist of pools of loans backed almost completely by real estate collateral. When the loan is not backed by real estate, losses on defaulted loans will typically be higher due to the lack of real estate collateral, which is generally an appreciating asset, versus collateral such as equipment, which is a depreciating asset.

Prepayment penalties for conventional loans tend to be more severe than the SBA. Penalties are set by the lender and will likely start at 5% and step down one percentage point per year for the first five years following disbursements.

SBA transactions are generally more geographically diverse than conventional transactions. Forty-eight states could be represented in an SBA transaction where conventional transactions may contain only eight with around 70% of loan concentration in one state. Small business performance is negatively affected by downturns in economic cycles; the geographic diversity of SBA transactions lessens some of this risk.

Smaller loan deals (conduit) are more liquid and are typically purchased by total-return, mark-to-market investors that, lacking real estate experience, are more apt to rely on diversification and the rating agencies’ analysis and judgment.

Fusion deals, presently the most common type of CMBS deal, are “lumpy” conduit deals. Generally, a fusion deal has a few large loans that are typically shadow-rated investment-grade loans that are combined with a diverse pool of conduit loans. They grew in popularity after 9/11, which shut down the single-asset and large-loan type CMBS deals due to concerns that the risk of a terrorist act against one large property was too great. As a result, these large loans were split up and portions placed into various CMBS, thereby creating fusion deals. Much focus is placed on the top 10 and top 20 loans in any given deal as these can have a substantial influence on performance.

Concentration is important because it is sometimes difficult for the rating agencies to predict commercial loan defaults. The rating agencies use measures to score loan concentration and, accordingly, require more or less credit enhancement. For example, Moody’s uses the Herfindahl index to determine the effective number of loans within a pool. A pool of 100 loans that had a Herfindahl index of 65 indicates that the pool has an effective diversity of 65 loans.

Now reports that the U.S. credit rating agency S & P with the message word that further loans with a volume of over 500 billion should be examined. In the worst case, this loan volume fully depreciated. The experts from S & P, however, assume that this sum of “only” nearly 265 billion U.S. dollars must be depreciated.

Through this message is likely many investors have become clear that the U.S. real estate crisis, which led to a worldwide credit crunch seems to mutate, long ausgestanden is not. Only when all the banks its portfolio of securities and loans examined, re-assessed and thus endangered by a failure of papers have depreciated, this crisis can be ended. Until the true size of the necessary write-offs are not known, the credit crisis persist. Yet, not all value losses in the books of the banks has been updated.

German investors have therefore been the coming weeks to further adjust fluctuating stock exchanges.

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